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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 4-E.Pineiro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model