Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 85

New York Giants 6 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-S.Smith to CAR 47 for 9 yards (85-C.Myarick). CAR-12-S.Smith was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-31-M.Breida, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 47.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.91 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model