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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.07 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model