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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 74

New York Giants 13 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to CAR 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model