Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 90

New York Giants 13 – Carolina Panthers 13

(1:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to CAR 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-S.Smith to CAR 41 for 8 yards (85-C.Myarick).

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model