Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 13 – New York Giants 13

(1:02) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.67 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model