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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 33

New York Giants 13 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.83 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP