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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 20

Carolina Panthers 13 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.00 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model