4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 16 – New York Giants 19

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 10-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model