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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 31

New York Giants 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end ran ob at CAR 29 for 2 yards (53-B.Burns).

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.18 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model