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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(:05) 22-C.McCaffrey right end to NYG 49 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney; 99-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.09 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model