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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 82

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to GB 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 46 for 20 yards (48-P.Scales).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model