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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 71

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to GB 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 14 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.42 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP