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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 26

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model