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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 1

Chicago Bears 10 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (91-P.Smith; 90-J.Reed). Chicago challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +3.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model