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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 24 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.27 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model