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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.33 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model