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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to DAL 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.49 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model