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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 85-N.Brown to CIN 39 for 17 yards (30-J.Bates) [98-D.Reader].

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.13 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model