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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model