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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CIN 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 41 for 20 yards (23-R.Dowdle).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model