4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.37 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model