Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

(12:50) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-87-J.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model