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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CIN 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.30 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model