4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to DAL 21, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 35 for 14 yards (51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.35 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 84, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 42, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model