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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model