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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 6-M.Haack punts 44 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 25 for -5 yards (38-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.44 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model