Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

(:18) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.23 EP
59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -1.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model