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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.50 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model