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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 6-M.Haack punts 51 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-34-I.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.23 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP