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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(6:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Patmon (2-R.Jenkins) [23-F.Oluokun].

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model