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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-K.Coutee MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at IND 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.74 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model