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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(:29) 1-T.Etienne right end to IND 25 for 4 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.19 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.73 EP