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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at IND 39 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model