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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for 12 yards (41-G.Stuard; 20-N.Cross).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model