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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 47

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to KC 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.81 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP