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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to KC 13, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.55 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP