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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) 5-T.Townsend punts 74 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-D.Bootle.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model