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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model