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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to KC 29, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP