Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 98

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(4:09) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to LAC 36, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -4.01 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.58 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 98, worth -6.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model