4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-M.Ammendola 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +4.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.27 EP