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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.48 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 7, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model