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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 6-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.96 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP