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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (32-N.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model