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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model