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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 57

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to PIT 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-G.Olszewski MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at PIT 20. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model