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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 40

New England Patriots 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 29 yards to PIT 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-58-A.Jennings.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP