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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 42

New England Patriots 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP