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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 9

New England Patriots 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.46 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP